Issue 3, June 2016
About the bulletin
The Conflict Analysis bulletin, part of the Conflict Analysis Project is an initiative by Lebanon Support, with the support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), available on the Civil Society Knowledge Centre (CSKC), Lebanon Support’s knowledge platform. The Conflict Analysis Project aims to make available and accessible information and research about conflicts in Lebanon, in order to better understand their underlying causes, and inform interventions and policy-making.
This bulletin features visuals focusing on conflict trends mapped during the first third of the year*. It also highlights a selection of the latest publications on the project’s page, including papers, articles, reports, visuals, and interactive content.
Defining Conflict
Going beyond the view of conflict through a security framework associated with belligerency and violence, Lebanon Support upholds that conflict is of a socio-political nature. It thus sheds light on dynamics underlying a broad spectrum of violent and non violent contentions including social movements, passing by conflicts opposing minorities (ethnic, religious or sexual among others) as well as local, national or regional actors’ policies. Read more and check the interactive conflict map here.
1. Overview of conflict incidents mapped between January and April 2016
From 1 January to 30 April 2016, a total of 1,407 conflict incidents were mapped by Lebanon Support on its interactive geo-located map. These took place in 281 villages, were categorised as 24 different types of incidents or categories, and involved 40 different actors. You can read the profiles of some prominent actors on this link. As seen in our overview of mapped conflicts in 2015 info-graphic, the number of conflicts mapped between January and April 2015 is 923, and so the first third of this year saw a 34% increase in incidents. With the last third of 2015 having 1,386 conflict incidents mapped, Lebanon Support's mapping reveals that incidents are consistently on the rise. This is due to more systematic reporting on conflicts, as well as our team’s reliance on a diversity of sources for info and data.
2. Frequency of incidents by primary classification of conflict (between January and April 2016)
In the geo-located mapping of conflict, Lebanon Support documents conflict incidents according to two typologies based on our sociological definition of conflict: category, which refers to the type or nature of an incident (eg. raid, collective action, military deployment); and classification, which gives a first analytical reading of the incident and what it pertains to.
There are 7 classifications: border conflicts (Israeli border); border conflicts (Syrian border); conflicts of social discrimination; conflicts of socio-economic development; policy conflicts; power & governance conflicts; and individual acts of violence. Incidents can be assigned primary and secondary categories and classifications in order to refine the mapping and give it more depth. You can read more about our definitions and typology here.
This visual showcases the frequency of mapped incidents during each day of the first four months of 2016 according to their primary classification of conflict. Evidently, border conflicts (Israeli border) and individual acts of violence are the most mapped between January and April 2016. Generally, individual acts of violence refer to isolated incidents by individuals that do not necessarily have a political agenda. These acts may include theft, shooting, arrest, light drug possession, and illicit trade, among others. For example, if there is a dispute between Lebanese nationals regarding personal differences, which later develops into a physical assault between the two citizens, this would be coded as an individual act of violence.
Israeli border conflicts and breaches of Lebanese sovereignty appear to be ongoing, with some occasional peaks, as we have previously reported here for the year 2015. However, these breaches remain largely overlooked.
Policy conflicts mapped during this period mostly concerned collective actions and mobilisations for social or political demands (like teachers mobilisations, renters/rentees conflict, mobilisation of families of kidnapped soldiers in Arsal, or the mobilisation of Palestinians protesting cuts in UNRWA relief aid). Strikingly, these policy conflicts were at an all time high in the month of January with over 70 collective actions mapped. Interestingly, in February, policy conflicts receded to 56 incidents and by April, only 28 incidents were reported.
3. Most mapped actors & corresponding types of conflict (between January and April 2016)
This visual focuses on the top 6 actors involved in incidents mapped between January and April 2016 and also reveals the top 6 categories these actors were involved in.
It is important to note that in this visualisation, the state actor Internal Security Forces includes the ISF Intelligence Branch, just as the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) includes Army Intelligence. Conflict actors refer to parties, groups, or individuals involved or affected by a conflict incident. For example, LAF or ISF members deployed to monitor a protest are thus coded and mapped within a collective action incident.
As seen through our visual, the Israeli Military is the most mapped formal/institutional actor, corresponding with what was shown in the previous visuals with the high frequency of border conflicts (Israeli border).
The most mapped non-formal actor involved in conflict incidents is Lebanese civilians, largely ahead of the number of mapped incidents involving Palestinian civilians/refugees and Syrian civilians/refugees. Incidents involving all civilians and refugees are “arrest & detention”, “raid”, and “collective action”, with Syrian refugees/civilians mostly mobilising in solidarity with victims of the conflict in Syria. Notably, Lebanese civilians is the only category of the 3 non-formal actors to be involved in “heavy artillery” incidents, most of which are relevant to the conflict in Ras Baalbeck, or to individual clashes between families, showing the proliferation of heavy weaponry in Lebanon as well as individuals tendency to easily resort to using this weaponry.
4. Featured paper within the Conflict Analysis Project
De la pérennisation d'un statut précaire à la lutte pour la titularisation : un regard rétrospectif sur la mobilisation des journaliers de l'Électricité du Liban (EDL).
By: Louis Mandarino | June, 2016
Entre 2012 et 2015, les travailleurs journaliers de l’Électricité du Liban (EDL) entament ce qui sera considéré comme la plus longue mobilisation de l’histoire moderne du Liban. Leur mouvement éclate lorsque l’EDL annonce l’externalisation du secteur de la distribution à trois soumissionnaires privés. En rationnalisant les dépenses, ces derniers auraient licencié 70% de la force de travail journalière. A partir de la description du quotidien du travail avant l’événement contestataire ainsi que des relations sociales, professionnelles et clientélistes qui le caractérisaient, cet article s’efforce de montrer que la mobilisation n’a pas été une réaction « spasmodique » au risque imminent de la perte d’emploi. En effet, les travailleurs percevaient le travail journalier comme un tremplin vers la titularisation. L’externalisation du secteur de la distribution ne mettait donc pas seulement en danger le travail « du jour d’après », mais faisait aussi disparaitre la perspective d’accéder à l’emploi stable « un jour ou l’autre » qui leur permettait de supporter au quotidien leur position subalterne. Click here to read more.
5. Translated paper within the Conflict Mapping & Analysis project
Lebanon Support has uploaded as a pdf file the translations to the paper below, simply visit the page and click on “DOWNLOAD TRANSLATION AS PDF” to access it.
Between Radicalization and Mediation Processes: a Political Mapping of Palestinian Refugee Camps in Lebanon
By Nicolas Dot-Pouillard | October, 2015
Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon are often depicted as “no-law zones”: rise of Salafist-Jihadist factions, inter-related military networks between some Lebanese, Palestinian and Syrian groups. Nevertheless, the camps are full of sharp contrasts, and cannot be reduced to Salafist radicalization. An Islamist scene with a nationalist agenda limits for the moment the ascent of extremist factions. Violence and insecurity are not only due to the Jihadist phenomenon: the internal dissensions of Fatah also play a capital role in the ongoing deterioration of the situation. For Lebanese and Palestinian stakeholders, the challenges are multi-fold. They are not able to confront one of the most important factors of radicalization: the constant socio-economic deprivation of Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon. But on the security level, some positive steps have been accomplished. The Lebanese army and its intelligence apparatus are not totally in an antagonistic relation with Palestinian actors. Despite their divisions, Palestinians organizations, from Islamists to Nationalists and Leftists, cooperate with each other. Even if they remain fragile, an inter-Palestinian mediation process and a constant dialogue with Lebanese authorities are surely a precondition to face Salafist radicalization. Click here to read more.
6. Translated Conflict Analysis Digests
Conflict Analysis Digest, August 2015: Politics of security, discourses of fear and economic fatigue, the conflict dynamics in Matn
By Lebanon Support | 2015
This short report provides an analytical summary of the conflict context, actors, and dynamics in the Matn area of Mount Lebanon. This report sheds light on the main actors, topics of contestation and conflict and its historical becoming as well as current expressions. A special focus lies on the relationship between the Lebanese host community and Syrian refugees and its development within the last four years (since 2011). Click here to download the English version.
Conflict Analysis Digest, May 2015: Spatial Fragmentation and rise in poverty. The conflict context in Saida
By Lebanon Support | 2015
This short report provides a contextual and analytical summary of the conflict in the region of Saida, south of Lebanon, with a focus on spatial struggles and poverty growth. It describes the main conflict actors and how they have historically contributed to the shaping of conflictual dynamics in Saida from the fifties until today. Findings highlight that while most observers and media attention are focusing on the “radical Islamist danger,” stakeholders and social actors in the city perceive the most pressing threats to be notably related to social factors, including the density of the population, spatial fragmentation, and rise in poverty. Click here to download the English version.
