Issue 9, January 2018
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About the bulletin
The Conflict Analysis bulletin, part of the Conflict Analysis Project is an initiative by Lebanon Support, with the support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), available on the Civil Society Knowledge Centre (CSKC), Lebanon Support’s knowledge platform. The Conflict Analysis Project aims to make available and accessible information and research about conflicts in Lebanon, in order to better understand their underlying causes, and inform interventions and policy-making.
This bulletin features visuals focusing on conflict trends mapped during the last third of 2017. It also highlights a selection of the latest publications on the project’s page, including papers, articles, reports, visuals, and interactive content.
Defining Conflict
Going beyond the view of conflict through a security framework associated with belligerency and violence, Lebanon Support upholds that conflict is of a socio-political nature. It thus sheds light on dynamics underlying a broad spectrum of violent and non violent contentions including social movements, conflicts opposing minorities (ethnic, religious or sexual among others) as well as local, national or regional actors’ policies.
Read more on and visit the interactive conflict map here.
Main data trends from the September - December 2017 period:
- The number of incidents mapped between September and December 2017 remained constant with only a 1.5% decrease compared to the second third of the year.
- The number of arrests relevant to illicit trade of drugs almost doubled during this period compared to the second third of 2017 (see the third visual below for more information about illicit trade of drugs).
- Unlike the previous period, the last months of 2017 didn’t witness any major armed conflict and no incident categorised as heavy artillery was mapped during this period.
- Tensions between host communities and Syrian refugees have been increasing during the last four months of the year, with reports of 8 restrictions issued by municipalities, notably following the murder of a woman in Miziara who was sexually assaulted and killed by a Syrian national.
- Border Conflict with Israel saw a significant increase of 55% and became the most mapped primary classification during September-December 2017.
- The number of Conflicts of Social Discrimination have more than doubled during the last months of the 2017, with most of them notably relevant to collective actions and gender based violence.
1. Overview of conflict incidents mapped (from September - December 2017)
The last third of 2017 witnessed a total of 1768 incidents and remain constant with only a slight decrease of 1.5% compared to the 1795 incidents mapped during the second third of 2017.
52% of the mapped incidents during this period are concentrated in 5 cazas and represent together a total of 922 incidents: Sour (309 incidents), Baalbek (181 incidents), Bint Jbeil (169 incidents), Saida (135 incidents), Beirut (128 incidents). It is noteworthy to point out that except for Bent Jbeil, the others cazas were also the most mapped locations during the second third of the year. Moreover, the incidents between September and December 2017 appeared to be more dispersed across 311 villages whereas they were concentrated in 250 villages during the previous third of the year.
In Sour, most of the incidents were related to Israeli Border Conflicts (287 incidents) with recurrent air space violations and sea border crossing/violations by the Israeli Military. Additionally, 28% of the incidents mapped in Baalbeck were classified as Individual Acts of Violence (51 incidents) mostly relevant to arrests, brawl/disputes, shootings, robberies etc. Also 27% of the abovementioned incidents in Baalbeck are relevant to Syrian Border Conflicts with LAF intermittently conducting raids and arresting suspects of affiliation with armed militant organisations. Moreover, 36% of the incidents mapped in Saida are located in Ain el-Helweh (53 incidents) which is a decrease of 27% compared to the second third of the year that had witnessed an escalation of violence with recurrent armed conflicts within the camp. Finally, in Beirut, more than half of the incidents are categorised as arrests (68 incidents), and conducted by state security apparatuses such as ISF, LAF, State Security etc.
Between September and December 2017, air space violations by the Israeli Military witnessed a significant increase of 54% (652 incidents) compared to the second third of 2017 (424 incidents) and became the most mapped primary category for this period, representing 37% of the total mapped incidents. This trend is consistent with previous reports as a great number of air space violations were mapped during prior periods.
Arrest/detention, which has been the most mapped primary category since the beginning of 2017, has now become the second most mapped. At the same time, the number of incidents under this category (496 incidents) slightly increased by 12%, compared to the second third of the year (441 incidents).
It is followed by dismantlement of explosives (123 incidents), sea-border crossing/violation (86 incidents), and collective action (76 incidents). Since 29 November 2017, Lebanon Support has started mapping collective actions on a separate map. (Learn more about this below).
Concerning the incidents categorised as arrests, 205 of them were assigned the secondary category of illicit trade/smuggling, with 63% related to drugs (131 incidents). In fact, the number of arrests involving drugs almost doubled during this period compared to the second third of 2017 (67 incidents) (see the third visual below for more information about operations relevant to illicit trade of drugs).
As for the incidents categorised as dismantlement of explosives, 105 were located in the South and were relevant to Israeli Border Conflicts, with NGOs, and UNIFIL experts dismantling landmines left by the Israeli Forces during the 2006 war. In addition, 17 of the abovementioned incidents were classified as Border Conflict with Syria. In fact, after Hezbollah’s and LAF’s respective operations in Arsal in July and Ras Baalbeck in August to clear out the region from armed militants, the army has been dismantling explosive devices left by militants in both areas.
Additionally, tensions between host communities and Syrian refugees have been increasing during the last four months of the year. In fact, after the murder of a woman in Miziara who was sexually assaulted and killed by a Syrian national, discrimination against the Syrian population has been on the rise, and 8 restrictions issued by municipalities have been reported. For instance, the Bcharre municipality ordered the eviction of refugees from its region, while Hasroun municipalities issued restrictions concerning Syrian living conditions and curfews in the area. 5 collective actions were also organised to protest against Syrian refugees’ presence in Lebanon. For example, on October 14th, 2017, the Lebanese Promise Party held a demonstration asking the government to send back Syrian nationals to their country.
The number of collective actions mapped during the last third of the year significantly decreased by almost 50% compared to the second third (143 incidents). This drop could be explained by the relatively responsiveness of policy makers towards citizens’ demands ahead of the 2018 Parliamentary elections. Indeed, politicians have recently been actively discussing and bargaining many issues, such as general amnesty for Islamic detainees and solid waste management solutions among others.
Finally, the number of gender based violence incidents reported (30 incidents) significantly increased by 76% compared the second third of 2017 (17 incidents), tripling in comparison to the first months of the year (10 incidents). In fact, 13 arrests have been made on sex trafficking and/or illegal prostitution charges. One of them took place on December 12, 2017 when the ISF raided a coffee shop in Aramoun area and apprehended 28 Lebanese and Syrian nationals for being part of a prostitution ring. Also, 5 women were murdered during the past 4 months as a result of domestic violence or sexual assault. This was notably the case of British diplomat Rebbeca Dykes who was strangled and dumped on Metn highway on December 16 by her Uber driver, after he attempted to rape her. A few days later, on December 23, another femicide victim died in Beirut, after being stabbed and strangled by her husband following a dispute at their house. However, it is noteworthy to point out that the number of gender based violence incidents mapped in Lebanon considerably understates the scale of the problem given notorious underreporting of that crime.
Similar to the second third of 2017, the Israeli Military was the most active state actor during the last months of the year and was involved in no less than 755 incidents. It is followed by ISF (235 incidents) and LAF (106 incidents) which is also consistent with the trend between May and August 2017.
As for civilians, despite a significant decrease by 27% of incidents involving Lebanese civilians (383 incidents), the latter remain the most mapped actor involved in conflict incidents, similarly to the second third of the year (524 incidents). Moreover, it is noteworthy to point out that more than half of Individual Acts of Violence involved Lebanese nationals (228 incidents), whereas only 17% involved Syrian civilians/refugees (76 incidents). Also, Syrian civilians/refugees have been implicated in a total of 221 incidents, mainly arrests (185 incidents) relevant to illegal stay, but also to affiliation and support of armed militant organisations such as Islamic State and Jabhat el-Sham (previously al-Nusra). Finally, Palestinian civilians/refugees have been mapped in connection to 122 incidents, with more than half of them classified as Individual Acts of Violence (67 incidents).
2. Frequency of incidents by primary classification of conflict (from September-December 2017)
Border Conflict with Israel has been by far the most mapped primary classification during the last months of the year with 873 incidents under this classification, followed by Individual Acts of Violence (444 incidents) and Power and Governance (204 incidents).
Focusing on the Border Conflict with Israel classification, the number of such conflict incidents witnessed a significant increase of 55% compared to the second third of the year. In fact, between September and December 2017, tensions with Israel have been escalating with the latter recurrently launching threats and warnings against Lebanon and Hezbollah. Relatedly, no less than 9 arrests have been made during this period for collaboration with Israel. The most notable one was the detention of the famous Lebanese actor and playwright Ziad Itani, suspected of collaborating with the Mossad. This tense context could explain the intensification of Israeli military operations in Lebanese territory.
As for Individual Acts of Violence, the number of incidents under this classification witnessed a decreased of 24% during this period. Moreover, 57% of these conflicts are relevant to arrests (254 incidents), 11% to brawls/disputes (50 incidents), and 11% to robberies (48 incidents).
Furthermore, the number of conflicts classified as Power and Governance (306 incidents) in both primary and secondary classification also dropped by 30% compared to the second third of the year (433 incidents). In fact, unlike the previous period, the last months of 2017 did not witness any major armed conflict, and no incident categorised as heavy artillery was mapped between September and December. Additionally, only 4 clashes were reported, mainly located in the Palestinian camps of Ain el-Helweh and al-Bass. The latter witnessed an armed conflict, on October 12, between armed militants affiliated to a prominent drug dealer and the Fateh group militant. Similarly, tensions were reported in Ain el-Helweh, on October 31, when a clash erupted between armed militants after an assassination attempt on a leading Islamist fugitive’s son.
While the second third of 2017 witnessed a significant rise of Border Conflict with Syria classifications incidents (202), the number of such incidents decreased by 28% during the last months of the year (145). In fact, after the ousting of these militants from Lebanese territory, the LAF continued its ground operation to arrest suspects of affiliation with armed groups as well as dismantling explosive devices left by militants and seizing weapons. For this reason, more than half of Syrian Borders Conflicts are also classified as Power and Governance as a secondary classification (81 incidents). It is also noteworthy to point out that 13 incidents relevant to Syrian Border Conflicts involved raids on Syrian refugees camps and were therefore classified as Conflicts of Social Discrimination.
Whereas no Conflict of Socio-Economic Development as primary classification was recorded between May and September 2017, 10 incidents under this classification were mapped during the last months of 2017. This number rises to 27 when taking into account the secondary classification. Such incidents are mainly collective actions, including protests against unpaid wages, unemployment but also against public decisions such as law reforms concerning tax policies or salaries scales. For instance. EDL workers protested several times in December against regular delays in their wage payment while demanding to work under long-term contracts (see new map focusing on collective actions below).
Finally, the number of incidents classified as Conflict of Social Discrimination as a primary classification, more than doubled (51 incidents) compared to the previous period (19 incidents). 41% of these incidents are classified as collective action (21 incidents) mainly relevant to mobilisations in support of the Palestinian cause (10 incidents) after Trump’s decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Also, 29% of these discriminatory conflicts (15 incidents) were categorised as gender-based violence related to sex trafficking, domestic violence, and sexual assault.
3. Focus on illicit trade related arrests / operations
Lebanon is considered as one of the main cannabis producers and exporters worldwide. Yet, within the country, the use of illicit drugs is severely prohibited under the Lebanese law and the state has been attempting to eradicate drug production for decades. Indeed, security apparatuses such as ISF, LAF, and the Lebanese customs among others, are recurrently arresting civilians on charges of drugs possession and smuggling. This drug policy approach has been criticised by civil society actors who are accusing the state of prosecuting individual users of drugs and turning a blind eye to politically protected dealers and drug promoters. For instance Skoun, a Lebanese NGO’s advocating for drug policy change has denounced this lack of distinguishment between drug “users” and drug “promoters.”
However during the last four months of the year, authorities seemed to have been targeting prominent drug rings. In fact, between September and December 2017, 130 incidents relevant to the illicit trade of drugs were mapped. These operations range from arrests of drug users to busts of major smuggling networks. The latter were particularly targeted during the last four months of the year with authorities seizing large amount of drugs.
ISF appeared to be the most active State actor in fighting the smuggling of drugs, since the majority of these arrests are monitored by either ISF patrols (68 incidents) or ISF Intelligence branches (27 incidents). In fact, ISF has established a special anti-drug division – the Drug Enforcement Bureau (DEB) which is in charge of drug related operations.
Furthermore, although the incidents involving illicit trade are dispersed across the country, the governorate of Mount Lebanon is the first mapped location of incidents categorised as illicit trade of drugs (41 incidents). It is followed by Beirut (30 incidents) and South Lebanon (22 incidents). It is also noteworthy to point out that two of the biggest drug related operations were located in Britel in the Bekaa valley which is well notorious for its hashish (cannabis) cultivation.
During the last third of the year, 57 incidents related to drugs were classified as Individual Acts of Violence, mainly involving personal use of small quantities of drugs, whereas 72 of the abovementioned incidents fell under the Power and Governance classification due to the fact that most involved large amounts of drugs. Among the latter classification, 37 were linked to major smuggling operations or involved wanted drug lords. Two of these operations took place at Beirut airport where Lebanese customs seized a large amount of cocaine. In fact, on December 18, more than 13 kg of cocaine was discovered in an arrivals terminal bathroom at the airport. Then, on December 22, Lebanese customs was able to thwart one of the “largest cocaine smuggling operation” with 31 kg of cocaine hidden in the luggage of an elderly Venezuelan woman. The latter was arrested along two ISF officers suspected of assisting her.
Moreover, similar operations during which large amounts of drugs were seized took place across Lebanon during the last four months of 2017. For instance, on October 1, a DEB office patrol, arrested a prominent drug dealer in Keserwan area and later raided his house, retrieving more than 10 kg of hashish as well as 778 g of cocaine. Similarly, an Army raid on a house in Britel led to the seizing of 800 kg of hashish on December 9. Additionally, authorities were able to dismantle in Khalde prominent drug ring which was part of an international network and to arrest its members as well as retrieve a considerable amount of drugs on October 16.
4. Featured mapping within the Conflict Analysis Project
Map of Collective Actions in Lebanon
No less than 14 collective actions have been reported across Lebanon since the beginning of this year. Most of them are mobilisations demanding Access to Socio-Economic Rights, such as long-term contracts for EDL workers, or disabled persons expressing their right to be fully integrated into society.
To find out more about these mobilisations and others, explore our new interactive map solely tracking collective actions in Lebanon, and aiming at understanding social movements.
This map is developed by Lebanon Support, in partnership with UNDP Lebanon.
5. Updated Spot on Events within the Conflict Analysis Project
- Arsal Conflict (Starting August 2, 2014)
If Arsal outskirts appear to be cleared from armed militants now, the Army continues to monitor operations in the area frequently launching raids, arresting suspects of terrorism, seizing weapons, as well as dismantling landmines and explosives left by the militants. Learn more about Arsal conflict here.
- Ras Baalbeck clashes (Starting December 2, 2014)
Although the conflicts in Ras Baalbeck were ongoing since 2014, it is not until August 2017 that an offensive was officially launched against the armed militants in order to expel them from Lebanese territory. Learn more about this battle on Ras Baalbeck clashes timeline here.
6. Updated Spot on Actors within the Conflict Analysis Project
On December 10th 2017, Iraqi Prime minister declared the victory of Iraq over the Islamic State marking the collapse of Daesh proclaimed Caliphate. Check out the updated Islamic State actor profile here.
